Is Dubai in a 50% price correction? What registered prices show since the peak
Compare raw and fixed-area-weight price changes against the same reference windows. The latest extract no longer supports uniform claims about the size or ranking of each segment’s fall.
The latest included three-month window runs from 2026-08-01 to 2026-10-31. Across the sampled segments and the two measures below, prices are 3.3% to 12.0% below their observed peaks. These particular series have not recorded the 50% fall required for prices to halve.
The November refresh changes the interpretation of the smaller movements. The raw completed-apartment fall is 0.87 times that series' typical earlier three-month move; the fixed-weight version is 1.96 times its own. A single statement that every measure exceeds typical movement would misdescribe this extract.
Compare the same windows and measures
Each point pools three months and advances one month at a time. Raw prices are sample medians of registered AED per square metre. The fixed-weight measure combines area medians using their 2025 sales weights, holding area composition steady. Within-area changes in apartment size, quality and project mix can still affect the result. This is not a matched-property or official house-price index.
What the latest extract shows
| Segment | Measure | Peak window | Peak AED/sqm | Latest AED/sqm | From peak | From reference window | Typical earlier 3-month move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Completed apartments | Raw | 2026-04 | 15,875 AED/sqm | 15,359 AED/sqm | -3.3% | -3.1% | 3.8% |
| Completed apartments | Fixed area weights | 2026-02 | 17,939 AED/sqm | 16,966 AED/sqm | -5.4% | -5.4% | 2.8% |
| Off-plan apartments | Raw | 2026-04 | 20,527 AED/sqm | 18,929 AED/sqm | -7.8% | -6.3% | 2.5% |
| Off-plan apartments | Fixed area weights | 2025-12 | 23,596 AED/sqm | 22,579 AED/sqm | -4.3% | -1.4% | 2.9% |
| Villas | Raw | 2026-02 | 19,420 AED/sqm | 17,085 AED/sqm | -12.0% | -12.0% | 4.5% |
| Villas | Fixed area weights | 2025-12 | 18,043 AED/sqm | 17,122 AED/sqm | -5.1% | -1.2% | 4.6% |
The reference column compares with the window ending 2026-02; the peak column uses each series' own observed maximum. They answer different questions and can produce different segment rankings. The table therefore retains both comparisons without declaring one segment the smallest or largest on every definition.
Sample coverage changes the interpretation
The fixed-weight calculations retain 23 completed-apartment areas, 22 off-plan apartment areas and 13 villa areas. Their respective coverage of 2025 segment sales is 84.3%, 72.8% and 72.9%. These are different populations from the full raw samples. Area weighting alone cannot establish that sales composition explains an entire price change.
Windows ending 2026-06, 2026-07 are excluded by the gap rule. The latest window has 0% of its days inside the known extraction gap. An ended calendar window does not guarantee complete registration coverage.
Use the register with property-level evidence
The source records registered sale events. It does not provide a matched history of asking prices, withdrawn listings, offers or property inspections. The selected sample cannot measure how long a home takes to sell or what discount a particular seller will accept. Its observation lag and coverage also prevent a causal claim about why prices changed.
For a purchase or sale discussion, narrow the records by area, building, bedroom count and size, then examine transaction dates and property differences. Use the building price-range guide to separate a broad median from specific comparables, or inspect the price-index methodology behind other views on this site.