Dubai's ready apartments are off their peak but not below last year, and the off-plan drop is a mix effect
Whether the ready market is cooling depends on the base you measure from, and the register can show both.
+4.8%
Ready apartments, year on year
median AED/sqm, 2026-07-07 to 2026-10-06 against the same quarter a year earlier
-4.9%
Ready apartments, from the peak quarter
peak quarter was 2026-01-07 to 2026-04-06
-7.0%
Off-plan apartments, year on year
citywide; the typical area moved +1.1%
September's coverage of Dubai property has settled on a story: a wave of handovers is adding supply, prices are easing, and the ready market is where the easing shows. Emaar's founder said on 7 September that a lot of supply is coming and that he expects a nice balance in the city by 2027. REIDIN's rent index tells a matching story on the rental side, its annual growth slowing from 6.15% in December 2025 to 1.55% in April 2026.
Those are statements about supply and rents. The registration record holds neither. What it does hold is the price of every apartment that changed hands, flagged as completed or off-plan, so the one thing it can settle is whether completed-apartment prices have actually moved, by how much, and whether the move is happening inside areas or only in the citywide average.
Eight quarters of ready against off-plan
Each row is a rolling quarter ending on the snapshot date, apartments only, median AED/sqm. Rolling rather than calendar quarters so the latest row is the freshest 92 days on record and the row four places down covers the same season a year earlier. A quarter where the missing month (below) covers more than a quarter of its days cannot count as the peak, because its sample is too thin to set a high.
| Quarter | Ready median | Ready sales sampled | Off-plan median | Off-plan sales sampled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-07 to 2026-10-06 | 14,992 AED/sqm | 2,533 | 18,821 AED/sqm | 7,031 |
| 2026-04-07 to 2026-07-06 | 15,669 AED/sqm | 1,892 | 19,110 AED/sqm | 6,235 |
| 2026-01-07 to 2026-04-06 | 15,765 AED/sqm | 3,866 | 20,336 AED/sqm | 9,787 |
| 2025-10-07 to 2026-01-06 | 15,364 AED/sqm | 4,550 | 20,177 AED/sqm | 12,273 |
| 2025-07-07 to 2025-10-06 | 14,312 AED/sqm | 4,088 | 20,232 AED/sqm | 13,729 |
| 2025-04-07 to 2025-07-06 | 15,062 AED/sqm | 4,831 | 19,910 AED/sqm | 10,077 |
| 2025-01-07 to 2025-04-06 | 14,585 AED/sqm | 4,155 | 19,860 AED/sqm | 7,917 |
| 2024-10-07 to 2025-01-06 | 14,283 AED/sqm | 4,262 | 18,766 AED/sqm | 8,975 |
The ready series climbs through 2025 to a peak of 15,765 AED/sqm in 2026-01-07 to 2026-04-06, then drops to 14,992 AED/sqm in the latest quarter, a move of -4.9%. The identical step a year earlier moved -1.9%, so the season does not explain it. And yet the latest quarter still sits +4.8% against the same quarter of 2025. Both facts are true at once, and which one gets quoted decides whether the ready market is "cooling" or "flat".
Inside the areas: below the peak, not below last year
An area qualifies when it has at least 40 sampled completed-apartment sales in both the latest quarter and the quarter being compared. Below that a couple of unusual sales shift a median by several percent, which is the size of the effect being measured. The 18 areas that clear it cover 80% of the latest quarter's sampled completed sales.
| Area | A year ago | Latest quarter | Change | Sales sampled (prior / latest) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Palm Jumeirah | 28,362 AED/sqm | 24,203 AED/sqm | -14.7% | 62 / 43 |
| Burj Khalifa | 29,309 AED/sqm | 26,814 AED/sqm | -8.5% | 196 / 112 |
| Al Merkadh | 22,217 AED/sqm | 20,536 AED/sqm | -7.6% | 213 / 126 |
| Hadaeq Sheikh Mohammed Bin Rashid | 25,161 AED/sqm | 23,317 AED/sqm | -7.3% | 91 / 85 |
| Al Barsha South Fourth | 13,441 AED/sqm | 12,636 AED/sqm | -6.0% | 551 / 373 |
| Me'Aisem First | 11,436 AED/sqm | 10,871 AED/sqm | -4.9% | 86 / 71 |
| Al Yelayiss 2 | 15,043 AED/sqm | 14,524 AED/sqm | -3.5% | 76 / 50 |
| Al Khairan First | 24,872 AED/sqm | 24,207 AED/sqm | -2.7% | 117 / 75 |
| Al Hebiah Fourth | 10,005 AED/sqm | 9,833 AED/sqm | -1.7% | 125 / 68 |
| Marsa Dubai | 21,301 AED/sqm | 21,194 AED/sqm | -0.5% | 290 / 222 |
| Business Bay | 19,592 AED/sqm | 19,589 AED/sqm | -0.0% | 373 / 226 |
| Madinat Al Mataar | 11,609 AED/sqm | 11,656 AED/sqm | +0.4% | 106 / 44 |
| Jabal Ali First | 11,061 AED/sqm | 11,356 AED/sqm | +2.7% | 208 / 130 |
| Al Thanyah Fifth | 15,357 AED/sqm | 15,882 AED/sqm | +3.4% | 200 / 108 |
| Al Barshaa South Third | 14,152 AED/sqm | 14,648 AED/sqm | +3.5% | 106 / 90 |
| Al Warsan First | 7,111 AED/sqm | 7,444 AED/sqm | +4.7% | 191 / 79 |
| Nadd Hessa | 9,312 AED/sqm | 10,804 AED/sqm | +16.0% | 128 / 77 |
| Wadi Al Safa 3 | 8,347 AED/sqm | 12,533 AED/sqm | +50.1% | 97 / 59 |
Year on year, 11 of the 18 areas fell and 7 rose, with a median move of -0.5%. The biggest falls are in Palm Jumeirah (-14.7%), Burj Khalifa (-8.5%), Al Merkadh (-7.6%). Holding up best are Wadi Al Safa 3 (+50.1%), Nadd Hessa (+16.0%), Al Warsan First (+4.7%).
Reweighting the latest quarter so every area keeps its year-earlier share of sales gives -2.0%, against a raw citywide +4.8%. The gap between them comes from a shift in where completed flats sold, so the reweighted figure is the better guide to prices inside areas.
Measured from the peak quarter instead, the picture inverts. Of the 18 areas with enough sales in both the peak quarter and the latest one, 16 are lower now, with a median move of -7.7%. The ready market's retreat from its peak is not a citywide average hiding a few areas. It is nearly everywhere.
The off-plan fall is a mix effect
Off-plan, citywide
-7.0%
median AED/sqm, latest quarter vs a year earlier
Off-plan, typical area
+1.1%
median of 29 areas measured inside themselves
The citywide off-plan median fell -7.0% year on year. Inside areas it rose in 17 of 29, and reweighting the latest quarter to last year's area shares turns the citywide fall into +1.0%. That is the signature of a composition change, the same one the guides on the off-plan premium and fastest-growing areas found in their own rankings.
The areas doing it are visible in the sample shares. Madinat Al Mataar went from 3.8% of sampled off-plan sales a year ago to 18.2% in the latest quarter, and its year-earlier median of 16,657 AED/sqm sat below the citywide 20,232 AED/sqm. Jabal Ali Industrial Second went from 0.4% to 11.2%, its prior median 15,711 AED/sqm. When a fifth or more of the off-plan market moves into cheaper communities, the citywide median falls without a single project cutting its price.
Ready down while off-plan held
The question the September coverage implies is how many areas saw completed prices fall while off-plan rose or held. Among the 13 areas sampled well enough on both sides, the answer is 4.
| Area | Ready, year on year | Off-plan, year on year |
|---|---|---|
| Al Merkadh | -7.6% | +1.1% |
| Hadaeq Sheikh Mohammed Bin Rashid | -7.3% | -0.5% |
| Al Barsha South Fourth | -6.0% | -0.1% |
| Me'Aisem First | -4.9% | +1.2% |
| Al Yelayiss 2 | -3.5% | +0.9% |
| Al Khairan First | -2.7% | +2.6% |
| Al Hebiah Fourth | -1.7% | -0.2% |
| Business Bay | -0.0% | -2.8% |
| Madinat Al Mataar | +0.4% | +11.2% |
| Jabal Ali First | +2.7% | +9.2% |
| Al Thanyah Fifth | +3.4% | +2.6% |
| Al Barshaa South Third | +3.5% | +14.1% |
| Wadi Al Safa 3 | +50.1% | -7.7% |
4 of 13 is not a market where ready is falling and off-plan is not. It is a market where completed prices are roughly flat on a year ago, having come off their peak, while off-plan prices inside each area are drifting up and the off-plan average is being pulled down by where the launches are.
What the register can and cannot say
It can say that completed-apartment prices in 16 of 18 well-sampled areas are below their peak-quarter level, and that 7 of 18 are still at or above where they stood a year earlier. It can say that the citywide off-plan decline disappears once areas are held fixed.
It cannot say why. The record holds prices at the point of sale, not supply. A handover is not flagged, so a completed sale in the latest quarter might be a first resale of a newly delivered unit or a twenty-year-old flat, and the register does not distinguish them. It holds no listings, no asking prices and no rents, so REIDIN's rent deceleration cannot be checked against it. And a month of the register is missing, which is why the volume side of the "supply wave" story is left alone here.
Data comes from Dubai Land Department historical sales records through 2026-10-06. Sales only, not rentals. Market reference, not valuation or investment advice.