Dubai's ready apartments are off their peak but not below last year, and the off-plan drop is a mix effect
Whether the ready market is cooling depends on the base you measure from, and the register can show both.
+3.8%
Ready apartments, year on year
median AED/sqm, 2026-06-18 to 2026-09-17 against the same quarter a year earlier
-4.2%
Ready apartments, from the peak quarter
peak quarter was 2025-12-18 to 2026-03-17
-7.7%
Off-plan apartments, year on year
citywide; the typical area moved +2.4%
September's coverage of Dubai property has settled on a story: a wave of handovers is adding supply, prices are easing, and the ready market is where the easing shows. Emaar's founder said on 7 September that a lot of supply is coming and that he expects a nice balance in the city by 2027. REIDIN's rent index tells a matching story on the rental side, its annual growth slowing from 6.15% in December 2025 to 1.55% in April 2026.
Those are statements about supply and rents. The registration record holds neither. What it does hold is the price of every apartment that changed hands, flagged as completed or off-plan, so the one thing it can settle is whether completed-apartment prices have actually moved, by how much, and whether the move is happening inside areas or only in the citywide average.
Eight quarters of ready against off-plan
Each row is a rolling quarter ending on the snapshot date, apartments only, median AED/sqm. Rolling rather than calendar quarters so the latest row is the freshest 92 days on record and the row four places down covers the same season a year earlier. A quarter where the missing month (below) covers more than a quarter of its days cannot count as the peak, because its sample is too thin to set a high.
| Quarter | Ready median | Ready sales sampled | Off-plan median | Off-plan sales sampled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-18 to 2026-09-17 | 14,902 AED/sqm | 2,478 | 18,806 AED/sqm | 7,234 |
| 2026-03-18 to 2026-06-17 | 15,669 AED/sqm | 1,857 | 19,932 AED/sqm | 7,029 |
| 2025-12-18 to 2026-03-17 | 15,557 AED/sqm | 4,172 | 20,159 AED/sqm | 10,182 |
| 2025-09-18 to 2025-12-17 | 15,246 AED/sqm | 4,671 | 20,025 AED/sqm | 12,855 |
| 2025-06-18 to 2025-09-17 | 14,352 AED/sqm | 4,162 | 20,374 AED/sqm | 12,773 |
| 2025-03-18 to 2025-06-17 | 15,076 AED/sqm | 4,714 | 19,808 AED/sqm | 9,552 |
| 2024-12-18 to 2025-03-17 | 14,575 AED/sqm | 4,062 | 19,728 AED/sqm | 8,064 |
| 2024-09-18 to 2024-12-17 | 13,960 AED/sqm | 4,515 | 18,578 AED/sqm | 9,737 |
The ready series climbs through 2025 to a peak of 15,557 AED/sqm in 2025-12-18 to 2026-03-17, then drops to 14,902 AED/sqm in the latest quarter, a move of -4.2%. The identical step a year earlier moved -1.5%, so the season does not explain it. And yet the latest quarter still sits +3.8% against the same quarter of 2025. Both facts are true at once, and which one gets quoted decides whether the ready market is "cooling" or "flat".
Inside the areas: below the peak, not below last year
An area qualifies when it has at least 40 sampled completed-apartment sales in both the latest quarter and the quarter being compared. Below that a couple of unusual sales shift a median by several percent, which is the size of the effect being measured. The 18 areas that clear it cover 80% of the latest quarter's sampled completed sales.
| Area | A year ago | Latest quarter | Change | Sales sampled (prior / latest) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Palm Jumeirah | 27,451 AED/sqm | 24,269 AED/sqm | -11.6% | 75 / 43 |
| Me'Aisem First | 12,378 AED/sqm | 10,986 AED/sqm | -11.3% | 91 / 78 |
| Madinat Al Mataar | 11,996 AED/sqm | 10,973 AED/sqm | -8.5% | 84 / 41 |
| Al Merkadh | 22,320 AED/sqm | 20,536 AED/sqm | -8.0% | 206 / 110 |
| Hadaeq Sheikh Mohammed Bin Rashid | 24,175 AED/sqm | 23,299 AED/sqm | -3.6% | 106 / 83 |
| Al Yelayiss 2 | 14,867 AED/sqm | 14,357 AED/sqm | -3.4% | 71 / 46 |
| Al Barsha South Fourth | 13,365 AED/sqm | 12,911 AED/sqm | -3.4% | 549 / 374 |
| Al Khairan First | 24,795 AED/sqm | 24,557 AED/sqm | -1.0% | 116 / 95 |
| Burj Khalifa | 27,776 AED/sqm | 27,551 AED/sqm | -0.8% | 214 / 106 |
| Al Hebiah Fourth | 10,099 AED/sqm | 10,179 AED/sqm | +0.8% | 124 / 74 |
| Al Warsan First | 7,111 AED/sqm | 7,222 AED/sqm | +1.6% | 178 / 80 |
| Al Barshaa South Third | 14,249 AED/sqm | 14,615 AED/sqm | +2.6% | 104 / 82 |
| Marsa Dubai | 20,647 AED/sqm | 21,194 AED/sqm | +2.7% | 290 / 228 |
| Al Thanyah Fifth | 14,682 AED/sqm | 15,086 AED/sqm | +2.8% | 220 / 95 |
| Business Bay | 19,147 AED/sqm | 19,918 AED/sqm | +4.0% | 410 / 220 |
| Jabal Ali First | 11,058 AED/sqm | 11,838 AED/sqm | +7.1% | 212 / 116 |
| Nadd Hessa | 9,154 AED/sqm | 10,755 AED/sqm | +17.5% | 118 / 73 |
| Wadi Al Safa 3 | 8,781 AED/sqm | 12,122 AED/sqm | +38.1% | 81 / 47 |
Year on year, 9 of the 18 areas fell and 9 rose, with a median move of +0.8%. The biggest falls are in Palm Jumeirah (-11.6%), Me'Aisem First (-11.3%), Madinat Al Mataar (-8.5%). Holding up best are Wadi Al Safa 3 (+38.1%), Nadd Hessa (+17.5%), Jabal Ali First (+7.1%).
Reweighting the latest quarter so every area keeps its year-earlier share of sales gives -0.0%, against a raw citywide +3.8%. The gap between them comes from a shift in where completed flats sold, so the reweighted figure is the better guide to prices inside areas.
Measured from the peak quarter instead, the picture inverts. Of the 18 areas with enough sales in both the peak quarter and the latest one, 16 are lower now, with a median move of -6.7%. The ready market's retreat from its peak is not a citywide average hiding a few areas. It is nearly everywhere.
The off-plan fall is a mix effect
Off-plan, citywide
-7.7%
median AED/sqm, latest quarter vs a year earlier
Off-plan, typical area
+2.4%
median of 29 areas measured inside themselves
The citywide off-plan median fell -7.7% year on year. Inside areas it rose in 19 of 29, and reweighting the latest quarter to last year's area shares turns the citywide fall into +1.4%. That is the signature of a composition change, the same one the guides on the off-plan premium and fastest-growing areas found in their own rankings.
The areas doing it are visible in the sample shares. Madinat Al Mataar went from 3.8% of sampled off-plan sales a year ago to 21.2% in the latest quarter, and its year-earlier median of 17,236 AED/sqm sat below the citywide 20,374 AED/sqm. Jabal Ali Industrial Second went from 0.4% to 10.1%, its prior median 15,444 AED/sqm. When a fifth or more of the off-plan market moves into cheaper communities, the citywide median falls without a single project cutting its price.
Ready down while off-plan held
The question the September coverage implies is how many areas saw completed prices fall while off-plan rose or held. Among the 13 areas sampled well enough on both sides, the answer is 6.
| Area | Ready, year on year | Off-plan, year on year |
|---|---|---|
| Me'Aisem First | -11.3% | +0.5% |
| Madinat Al Mataar | -8.5% | +7.6% |
| Al Merkadh | -8.0% | +11.4% |
| Hadaeq Sheikh Mohammed Bin Rashid | -3.6% | -1.4% |
| Al Yelayiss 2 | -3.4% | +0.3% |
| Al Barsha South Fourth | -3.4% | +1.4% |
| Al Khairan First | -1.0% | +4.7% |
| Al Hebiah Fourth | +0.8% | -2.2% |
| Al Barshaa South Third | +2.6% | +18.8% |
| Al Thanyah Fifth | +2.8% | -0.9% |
| Business Bay | +4.0% | -1.9% |
| Jabal Ali First | +7.1% | +8.6% |
| Wadi Al Safa 3 | +38.1% | -6.5% |
6 of 13 is not a market where ready is falling and off-plan is not. It is a market where completed prices are roughly flat on a year ago, having come off their peak, while off-plan prices inside each area are drifting up and the off-plan average is being pulled down by where the launches are.
What the register can and cannot say
It can say that completed-apartment prices in 16 of 18 well-sampled areas are below their peak-quarter level, and that 9 of 18 are still at or above where they stood a year earlier. It can say that the citywide off-plan decline disappears once areas are held fixed.
It cannot say why. The record holds prices at the point of sale, not supply. A handover is not flagged, so a completed sale in the latest quarter might be a first resale of a newly delivered unit or a twenty-year-old flat, and the register does not distinguish them. It holds no listings, no asking prices and no rents, so REIDIN's rent deceleration cannot be checked against it. And a month of the register is missing, which is why the volume side of the "supply wave" story is left alone here.
Data comes from Dubai Land Department historical sales records through 2026-09-17. Sales only, not rentals. Market reference, not valuation or investment advice.