Which part of Dubai's market stopped buying after March 2026
The fall since the war split by segment: ready homes and land first, cheap off-plan last.
-30.7%
All registered sales
March, April, July and August 2026 against the same months of 2025, full counts
-45.3%
Ready (existing) sales
55% of the fall, from 38% of 2025 volume
-22.0%
Off-plan sales
45% of the fall, from 62% of 2025 volume
Dubai registered 30.7% fewer sales in March, April, July and August 2026 than in the same months of 2025. Iranian missiles and drones first came at Abu Dhabi and Dubai on 2026-02-28, hours after the US and Israeli strikes on Iran, and March was the first full month after. The question here is which buyers stopped.
The register can answer it. Each sale carries its property type, whether it was off-plan or ready, the price and the area, so the fall can be split along each of those lines and set against the same months a year earlier.
How the comparison is built
The break is March 2026, the first full month after the 2026-02-28 strikes. January and February stay in as a control: across those two months, before the war, registered sales were +12.7% on 2025, with off-plan +31.0% and ready -9.0%.
Two data sources sit behind the figures. Totals, the off-plan and ready split, and property type come from the full monthly counts. Price bands, the off-plan and ready split within each property type, and areas need individual sales, so they come from the transaction sample over the same four months. The sample held 35.0% of the full count in the 2025 months and 35.2% in the 2026 months, close enough that a percentage change in the sample can be read as a change in the market. Every table below says which source it uses.
Ready homes and land fell first
Full counts, the four comparable months added together. The last column is how much of the total fall of 22,007 sales each segment accounts for.
| Segment | 2025 | 2026 | Change | Share of 2025 | Share of the fall |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Off-plan | 44,697 | 34,868 | -22.0% | 62.4% | 44.7% |
| Ready | 26,904 | 14,726 | -45.3% | 37.6% | 55.3% |
| Apartments | 58,953 | 42,519 | -27.9% | 82.3% | 74.7% |
| Villas and townhouses | 5,057 | 4,024 | -20.4% | 7.1% | 4.7% |
| Land | 7,391 | 2,908 | -60.7% | 10.3% | 20.4% |
| Whole buildings | 200 | 143 | -28.5% | 0.3% | 0.3% |
Off-plan was 62% of sales in the 2025 months and accounts for 45% of the fall. Ready was 38% and accounts for 55%. Land was 10% of 2025 volume and 20% of the drop. DLD files villas and townhouses under one property type, so the register cannot split them.
Month by month, same source:
| Month | 2025 | 2026 | All sales | Off-plan | Ready | Off-plan share, 2025 / 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| March | 15,267 | 13,835 | -9.4% | +7.5% | -33.6% | 59% / 70% |
| April | 17,807 | 14,099 | -20.8% | +1.3% | -50.2% | 57% / 73% |
| July | 20,210 | 12,136 | -40.0% | -33.8% | -50.4% | 63% / 69% |
| August | 18,317 | 9,524 | -48.0% | -49.4% | -44.7% | 70% / 68% |
In March and April off-plan registrations were running at or above 2025, and the whole fall came from ready homes. By July off-plan was down 34%, and in August it fell 49.4% against 44.7% for ready. The pre-war control shows ready sales were already slipping in January and February, at -9.0%, so the ready fall began before the war and steepened after it. Off-plan was growing fast before the war and kept growing through April. The first months of the war hit the ready market, and off-plan caught up over the summer.
The cheapest band held best
From the sample, same four months. Price is the registered sale price.
| Price band | 2025 (sample) | 2026 (sample) | Change | Share of 2025 | Share of the fall |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under AED 1m | 6,289 | 5,507 | -12.4% | 25.1% | 10.3% |
| AED 1m to 2m | 8,730 | 5,626 | -35.6% | 34.9% | 40.9% |
| AED 2m to 5m | 7,388 | 4,632 | -37.3% | 29.5% | 36.3% |
| AED 5m to 10m | 1,539 | 986 | -35.9% | 6.1% | 7.3% |
| AED 10m and above | 1,085 | 687 | -36.7% | 4.3% | 5.2% |
Every band from AED 1m upward fell by between 36% and 37%. Sales under AED 1m fell 12.4%, and their share of the market went from 25% to 32%.
Splitting apartments by registration status shows where that came from:
| Price band | Off-plan apartments | Ready apartments |
|---|---|---|
| Under AED 1m | +5.4% (3,713 to 3,915) | -37.3% (2,462 to 1,543) |
| AED 1m to 2m | -34.7% (6,598 to 4,311) | -38.2% (1,807 to 1,116) |
| AED 2m to 5m | -29.4% (3,807 to 2,687) | -40.3% (1,249 to 746) |
| AED 5m to 10m | -35.5% (465 to 300) | -52.8% (195 to 92) |
| AED 10m and above | +3.5% (201 to 208) | -55.1% (78 to 35) |
Off-plan apartments under AED 1m went from 3,713 sampled sales to 3,915, a move of +5.4%. Off-plan apartments above AED 1m fell 32.2%. Ready apartments fell in every band, cheapest included, by between 37% and 55%. So the entry-level segment held up only where it was off-plan. The top band of off-plan (AED 10m and above) is a small cell and its move sits inside sampling noise.
By type and status together, also from the sample:
| Segment | 2025 (sample) | 2026 (sample) | Change | Share of 2025 | Share of the fall |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Off-plan apartments | 14,784 | 11,421 | -22.7% | 59.1% | 44.3% |
| Off-plan villas and townhouses | 901 | 836 | -7.2% | 3.6% | 0.9% |
| Ready apartments | 5,791 | 3,532 | -39.0% | 23.1% | 29.8% |
| Ready villas and townhouses | 931 | 546 | -41.4% | 3.7% | 5.1% |
| Land (ready plots) | 2,564 | 1,055 | -58.9% | 10.2% | 19.9% |
Off-plan villas and townhouses barely moved, at -7.2%. Ready villas fell 41.4%. Plots, which are all recorded as ready, fell 58.9%.
Where the fall landed
An area is ranked when it had at least 300 sampled sales in the 2025 months. Sampling noise on a count ratio is roughly the square root of 1/a + 1/b. At 300 sales before, falling at the citywide rate, that is about 9 points, well inside a citywide fall of 30. At 100 it widens to about 16 points, and the top and bottom of the ranking would be mostly noise. The 26 areas that clear 300 held 79% of sampled 2025 sales.
| Area | 2025 (sample) | 2026 (sample) | Change | Off-plan share, 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dubai Investment Park Second | 720 | 108 | -85.0% | 75% |
| Al Barshaa South Second | 564 | 99 | -82.4% | 92% |
| Business Bay | 1,880 | 637 | -66.1% | 68% |
| Hadaeq Sheikh Mohammed Bin Rashid | 732 | 259 | -64.6% | 66% |
| Marsa Dubai | 1,024 | 374 | -63.5% | 58% |
| Nadd Hessa | 474 | 193 | -59.3% | 69% |
| Madinat Dubai Almelaheyah | 614 | 259 | -57.8% | 97% |
| Burj Khalifa | 433 | 190 | -56.1% | 28% |
| Me'Aisem First | 954 | 460 | -51.8% | 79% |
| Al Hebiah First | 682 | 334 | -51.0% | 84% |
| Al Barsha South Fourth | 2,221 | 1,109 | -50.1% | 66% |
| Al Jadaf | 381 | 194 | -49.1% | 82% |
| Bukadra | 629 | 332 | -47.2% | 98% |
| Al Thanyah Fifth | 663 | 354 | -46.6% | 50% |
| Al Merkadh | 392 | 249 | -36.5% | 21% |
| Al Yelayiss 1 | 749 | 527 | -29.6% | 0% |
| Al Hebiah Fourth | 454 | 321 | -29.3% | 53% |
| Wadi Al Safa 5 | 1,201 | 854 | -28.9% | 75% |
| Al Barsha South Fifth | 421 | 306 | -27.3% | 73% |
| Wadi Al Safa 3 | 852 | 686 | -19.5% | 54% |
| Jabal Ali First | 996 | 808 | -18.9% | 60% |
| Al Barshaa South Third | 392 | 364 | -7.1% | 66% |
| Palm Deira | 502 | 543 | +8.2% | 94% |
| Al Khairan First | 337 | 406 | +20.5% | 53% |
| Wadi Al Safa 4 | 368 | 552 | +50.0% | 99% |
| Madinat Al Mataar | 1,152 | 1,993 | +73.0% | 83% |
22 of 26 areas fell, with a median move of -46.6%. The typical area fell harder than the city because the few that grew are large. The deepest falls were Dubai Investment Park Second (-85%), Al Barshaa South Second (-82%), Business Bay (-66%).
The 4 areas that grew are Palm Deira (+8%), Al Khairan First (+20%), Wadi Al Safa 4 (+50%), Madinat Al Mataar (+73%). All of them were mostly off-plan in 2025. That fits the price-band table: the sales that carried on were weighted towards cheap off-plan units. For how off-plan share has moved by area over the longer run, see the off-plan share guide.
Our counts against DLD's
Our full count, August
-48.0%
9,524 against 18,317 sales in August 2025
DLD headline, August
-36.7%
11,601 against our 18,317 for August 2025
DLD publishes a monthly headline, which gives a check on the recent months. For August 2026 it reported 11,601 sales worth AED 27.89bn. Our monthly file has 9,524, which is 82% of DLD's total; for July it holds 87%. For August 2025 the file's sales value matches the Gulf News figure to within 0.3%, so the older months look complete and the recent ones do not. Set DLD's August headline against our August 2025 count and the fall is 36.7% rather than 48.0%. On value, DLD against DLD, it is 45.0%. If July and August 2026 are taken at DLD's counts, the four-month fall becomes 25.3% instead of 30.7%.
The shortfall moves the levels and leaves the split between segments intact. DLD put off-plan at 67.1% of August sales; our count gives 68.2%. For July the figures are 69.1% and 69.2%. The missing records are spread across off-plan and ready in proportion, so the ranking of segments above holds on DLD's numbers too.
What the register cannot say
It shows who stopped registering sales, by segment. It cannot say why. It holds no listings and no withdrawn deals, so a buyer who walked away before signing leaves no trace. It does not flag cash against mortgage, and it has no nationality, so it cannot show whether residents leaving the UAE account for any of the fall. For the first-half total and how much of it the data gap explains, see the H1 slowdown guide; for prices in the ready market over the same stretch, the ready-market guide.
Data comes from Dubai Land Department historical sales records through 2026-09-17. Sales only, not rentals. Market reference, not valuation or investment advice.