Off-plan is now most of Dubai's apartment market, and the rise is concentrated
The yearly off-plan share, how much of its rise is where sales happened, and which areas carry it.
Most Dubai apartments now change hands before they exist. The share of sales registered off-plan has risen in every year of this dataset, and the citywide figure is the one people quote when they argue about whether the market is overheating. It hides more than it settles.
The citywide number
| Year | Off-plan share of apartment sales | Sampled sales |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 60.5% | 13,119 |
| 2024 | 66.6% | 50,455 |
| 2025 | 71.3% | 61,405 |
| 2026 | 73.4% | 21,449 |
Every figure here counts apartments alone. Villas and land follow a different pattern, and pooling all three moves the headline by several points while telling you about a change in the mix.
Where the rise actually came from
Two things can push a citywide share up. Buyers everywhere can start choosing off-plan more often, or sales can drift towards the areas that only ever sell off-plan while nobody's preferences change at all.
Holding each area's earlier rate fixed and re-weighting by the later year's volumes separates them.
66.5%
2024 actual
67.3%
2025 if no area had changed
71.0%
2025 actual
+4pt
From areas changing their own rate
The mix explains about a point. The rest is areas selling off-plan more often than they did the year before, which makes this a real shift in how apartments are being sold.
That reading needs one qualification, and it changes what you do with the number. The median area moved +1pt. A weighted rise several times the typical one puts the movement in the places doing the most business.
The areas carrying it
| Area | 2024 | 2025 | Change | Sampled sales 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Me'Aisem First | 49% | 76% | +27pt | 1,895 |
| Nadd Hessa | 35% | 63% | +28pt | 1,495 |
| Business Bay | 56% | 65% | +9pt | 4,846 |
| Al Hebiah First | 65% | 81% | +16pt | 2,173 |
| Wadi Al Safa 5 | 77% | 87% | +10pt | 3,033 |
| Madinat Al Mataar | 77% | 88% | +11pt | 2,725 |
Business Bay appears here on volume more than on movement, because a single-digit shift across thousands of sales outweighs a far larger swing somewhere small. The others are areas where a launch cycle arrived and reset the local rate.
Where it went the other way
| Area | Off-plan share 2025 | Change | Median AED/sqm |
|---|---|---|---|
| Al Warsan First | 4% | +1pt | 7,017 AED/sqm |
| Al Thanyah Third | 8% | +3pt | 19,543 AED/sqm |
| Al Merkadh | 21% | -46pt | 22,035 AED/sqm |
| Palm Jumeirah | 28% | +11pt | 33,475 AED/sqm |
| Burj Khalifa | 36% | -1pt | 31,708 AED/sqm |
| Al Safouh Second | 44% | -44pt | 23,938 AED/sqm |
A large minority of the comparable areas fell. The big drops are usually a project completing: units that registered off-plan in one year register as existing property when they resell in the next, so the area's rate collapses without any change in demand.
The full range runs from areas where almost nothing sells off-plan to areas where nothing sells any other way. A single citywide percentage sits somewhere in the middle and describes neither end.
What to do with this
Look up your own area before using any citywide figure. An area at ninety percent off-plan has a median price set largely by developer launch pricing, and comparing your resale against it is comparing against a price list.
Check the direction as well as the level. An area whose rate is falling is one where completed stock is entering the resale market, which usually means more comparable sales to work from and a median that starts describing negotiated prices.
Related reading: the off-plan premium by area covers what the two kinds of sale cost, and what this data covers explains why the off-plan flag exists in the record at all.
Data comes from Dubai Land Department historical sales records through 2026-08-13. It covers sales only (not rentals) and is market reference, not valuation or investment advice.